Episodes

In the aftermath of “Liberation Day”, we discuss the market reactions to the tariffs announced by the Trump administration, the implications for economic growth, and the importance of diversification in investment strategies. They analyze the current state of the markets, the fear index, and the potential effects of interest rate changes. The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to navigate volatility and maintain a disciplined approach to investing. Key Takeaways [0:17] - Post...

Greg and Doug Stokes discuss a first quarter filled with volatility, focusing on the performance of the Magnificent 7 companies and how market corrections are normal and often lead to better valuations. We’ll analyze consumer sentiment and reflect on historical comparisons to previous market corrections. We’ll also discuss why we welcome periodic volatility, allowing investors time to assess their risk and diversification levels. Key Takeaways [0:17] - Wrapping up a choppy Q1 [02:52...

Inflation and Interest Rates, Bond and Global Markets, and the U.S. Housing Market

Market corrections, recession narratives, and government spending

With the news swirling about S&P 500 declines, we dig into why market corrections are a normal part of financial cycles and why diversification is proving effective in the current environment. We’ll also dig into the performance of international markets, interest rate predictions, inflation vs. stagnation arguments, tariffs, jobs, and more. Key Takeaways [00:17] - What’s going on with the market correction and are we concerned? [04:51] - Corrections happen as part of a normal functioni...

Although we’re only 3-4% off market highs, investor sentiment has recently turned quite bearish, especially given a turbulent macro environment. We’ll look back on the first two months of the year, analyzing the fluctuations in the S&P 500, crypto, global tensions, and the reversal of inflation narratives. We’ll also examine why it feels like everything you thought you’d be bullish about under a Trump presidency, you should have been bearish about, and vice versa. Before we head out to more para...

Throw me something, mister! It’s Mardi Gras time in New Orleans, and we’ll talk about what that means for the city’s culture and what a great family-friendly time it is. We then transition to a broader discussion on the surprising resilience of the Chinese economy and why a positive January and February often predict a strong year ahead. The conversation shifts to the cryptocurrency market, particularly meme coins, and the potential risks involved. We also hit on the demographic challenges in Eu...

We begin this week by discussing the two biggest stories: inflation and tariffs. We’ll also delve into the performance of retail stocks, the influence of GLP-1 medications on fast food sales, and the performance of small caps and international markets. We’ll then dive into how shelter continues to drive CPI numbers and the contrasting dynamics of commercial and residential real estate markets. Key Takeaways [02:25] - Tariff rates on other countries vs. those on the U.S. [04:00] - The CPI stor...

Our daily commutes include celebrity sightings these days which means it’s Super Bowl time in New Orleans. We’ll discuss the big game and why the Big Easy is such a great host. We’ll also give our analysis of market volatility given the recent jobs report, political movement, and AI developments. We’ll finish with the importance of long-term investment strategies, and the psychological factors such as recency bias that influence investor behavior. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Celebrity sightings in...

Episode 150! As we look out our window watching New Orleans prepare and improve before the Super Bowl, we delve into the recent turmoil in the AI market, particularly the impact of a Chinese company's AI announcement on major tech stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom. Our discussion emphasizes the importance of market expectations and the potential for volatility in tech stocks, drawing parallels to past large shifts like the beginning of the Internet age. Key Takeaways [00:17] - New Orleans prepar...

We’re snowed in! We’ll discuss our experiences during a once-in-a-lifetime snow in New Orleans, analyze market reactions to Trump's presidency, and give prudent investment approaches as experts try to “predict corrections”. Plus NFL Championship weekend predictions. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Making memories during a rare snow in New Orleans [05:35] - Market reactions to Trump’s inauguration [08:00] - Expectations as we transition from Biden to Trump terms [11:40] - Can we take anything from T...

Greg and Doug continue last week’s conversation on bond market intrigue so far in 2025. They explore the implications of rising interest rates on bonds and the attractiveness of fixed-income investments compared to equities. The conversation also touches on changing consumer behaviors, particularly with alcohol consumption, and how these trends may affect related markets/investments. Key Takeaways [00:17] - The bond market continues to interest us most in 2025 [07:23] - How bonds are affectin...

Doug and Greg begin with reflections on recent tragedies, including a terrorist attack in New Orleans and the devastating wildfires in California. They discuss the significant movements in the bond market, the ongoing housing affordability crisis, and the implications of rising interest rates and inflation. The conversation also touches on the performance of international markets and the resilience of the American economy, highlighting the importance of innovation and risk-taking in driving econ...

Greg and Doug welcome back Santiago Solanet to discuss the current economic landscape of Argentina following the election of Javier Milei, nicknamed the Chainsaw President. They explore the historical context of Argentina's financial struggles, the impact of Milei's presidency, and the potential for investment opportunities. Santiago provides insights into the shift from socialist policies to economic reform, the challenges ahead for Milei's administration, and how he’s potentially providing a p...

After a brief chat about Elf on the Shelf and TV recommendations, we dive into the current state of the markets to find pockets of value when valuations can feel stretched. We’ll also discuss the concentration of returns in the S&P 500 and the continuing bullish sentiment among investors. With Elon Musk at the forefront, we highlight America's tech dominance, particularly in data centers and innovation, and share our excitement for the future of technology and investment opportunities. Key Take...

This week, we’ll begin our year-in-review as the analyst forecasts for 2025 start rolling in. We’ll balance those predictions by examining the volatility of the S&P 500 and the market’s historical performance. We’ll also continue our cryptocurrency conversation by considering it a speculative asset similar to gold while so much of it has no utility. We end with a historical look at markets in year 1 of presidential terms and how that data, coupled with the earnings variable, may predict a slight...

We’re bouncing around this week, starting with the recent surge in Bitcoin and market enthusiasm, although maybe not market-wide. We'll analyze valuations and dig into why the S&P 500's growth is largely driven by earnings and dividends. The conversation shifts to the comparison between US and international markets, highlighting the challenges faced by European economies and the growing wealth disparity between the US and Europe. We'll conclude with a historic market run and what history says th...

Doug and Greg Stokes begin this week's discussion with NVIDIA's recent earnings report, the ongoing AI race, and the implications of new data centers. They explore the characteristics of market bubbles, particularly in the context of AI and cryptocurrency, and analyze the performance of small-cap stocks versus large-cap tech. The conversation also touches on interest rates, economic policies, tariffs, and international markets. Key Takeaways [00:17] - NVIDIA Earnings + data center construction...

This week, Doug and Greg Stokes—Stokes Family Office Managing Partners—discuss market enthusiasm following the election, focusing on the rise of speculative assets like cryptocurrency and Tesla. They’ll delve into inflation picking back up and how it has influenced market performance recently and over the last four years. The conversation also looks back at historical market performance during political shifts and the implications for future valuations and market predictions. Key Takeaways [00...

Greg and Doug Stokes chat about the surprising results of the 2024 election, where Trump emerged victorious, and the implications of this outcome on the market and economic policies. They analyze polling accuracy, market reactions, and the potential for changes in tax policies and regulations. The discussion this week also covers the movements in various financial markets, including treasuries, stocks, gold, and crypto, and wraps with thoughts on future economic growth and inflation. Key T...

Less than a week from voting day, we’ll analyze the tight race and the historical context of market performance/reactions. We’ll also talk about the evolving role of AI in corporate America and how we can place value on it from an investment perspective. We’ll finish with a conversation on market seasonality and historical trends during election years. Key Takeaways [00:17] - New earnings/jobs report + the markets being agnostic to politics [05:13] - Super Micro Computer's stock volatility/re...

This week, we’ll discuss the rapidly changing political landscape as the election approaches, focusing on how market predictions and betting trends reflect potential outcomes. We’ll analyze the implications of different presidential policies on market sectors, the relationship between economic growth and interest rates, and the long-term perspectives on investment strategies. We’ll finish by taking a step back to look at positive global trends and the overall wealth of humanity, encouraging a br...

Greg and Doug look at polling data and betting markets marking a shift that could be happening in the race. They’ll also examine historical data that shows the party in power does not significantly impact market performance. The conversation then shifts to economic trends, highlighting the recent performance of small and mid-cap stocks and the resurgence of gold as a viable investment. Finally, they delve into technological innovations, including autonomous vehicles and energy efficiency advance...

With updated CPI data in hand, Greg and Doug discuss the juxtaposition of market highs and inflationary effects on consumer behavior and sentiment. They’ll also analyze the current bull market and its future projections, interest rates, the evolving office market post-COVID, and of course, a weekly election update. Key Takeaways [01:04] - Strong economic growth vs. rising prices [04:41] - Election predictions: polls vs. betting markets [09:32] - Bull market analysis and future projections [...