Episodes

We dig into the latest jobs report that showed a significant decline in new jobs. We’ll also analyze the minimal effect that tariffs have had on inflation and the economy as a whole, and how the Fed can and should react with rate cuts. We’ll finish with a look at the recent run of IPOs, how they could indicate a return of speculative behavior, and why you should be cautious with including IPOs in a sound investment strategy. Key Takeaways [00:16] - Breaking down the latest job report and ...

Greg and Doug Stokes start this week’s discussion with trade deals with the European Union and South Korea and the significant earnings reports from major tech companies like Meta and Microsoft. They also look at the massive windfall in profitability from the largest companies in America, which continues to bucking the narrative that geopolitical uncertainty is going to push us into a downturn. Then, they explore inflation, housing, and the job market, particularly in light of the growing influe...

AI Capex & IPO Windows

The Stokes Brothers explore the rise of private credit as a trending asset class, its risks and rewards, and the implications of JP Morgan's $50 billion investment into the space. They also discuss the Fed Chair tit-for-tat, why we need an independent, formulaic process for setting rates, and the long-term outlook on inflation and housing. Key Takeaways [00:00] - Jamie Dimon & private credit [04:39] - What is the risk in the private credit market? [11:31] - Municipal bonds v...

Greg and Doug reflect on the recent tragedy in Texas before diving into the current state of the markets with a focus on the rise of tech giants like NVIDIA and their outsized impact. They explore big tech’s market concentration, productivity gains from AI, the IPO landscape, and improving public sentiment. They also detail real-time inflation, interest rates, and Fed Chair drama. Key Takeaways [00:00] - Reflecting on the tragedy in Texas [02:10] - NVIDIA tops $4 trillion in market...

Happy Independence Week! We begin this week’s pod by discussing the remarkable recovery of the S&P 500, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a steady, long-term investment strategy. With that in mind, we’ll examine a study that demonstrates how dollar cost averaging outperforms trying to time the market perfectly. We also talk about the performance of international markets, bond returns, productivity from AI, and continue our call for Fed rate cuts. Key Takeaways [00:15]: American ex...

Greg and Doug Stokes interview Robert Watson, a veteran of the car business and former owner of Watson Quality Ford in Jackson, Mississippi. Robert shares his journey in the automotive industry, starting from his father's legacy to his own experiences in building a successful dealership. The conversation covers the evolution of car sales, the impact of the internet on customer interactions, the challenges of vehicle financing, and the future of electric vehicles and autonomous driving. Robert al...

While we await updated Fed Day data, we renew our call for the Fed to cut rates, discuss the muted market response to international conflicts, and examine the important role of bonds in providing stability in investment portfolios. We also talk about Vanguard's less-than-stellar market forecast as we continue to stress the importance of maintaining a diversified, long-term investment approach Key Takeaways [00:17] - It’s time for the Fed to cut rates [04:07] - The market reacts to ...

Doug and Greg dive into the most recent inflation data, which was softer than expected, examining how and why disinflation is currently taking hold in the economy. Taking in real-time shelter numbers, they also discuss the limited effects of tariffs so far, market optimism, and why the Fed should cut rates soon. Finally, heading into the U.S. Open weekend, they debate their two favorite sports and find a surprisingly profitable investment on the course. Key Takeaways [0:16] - Reacting to ...

Doug and Greg begin this week’s episode with a critique of Jamie Dimon's forecasts regarding the bond market and financial predictions in general. They explore the rise of autonomous driving technology, the world-changing impact of American investment in innovation, and the influence of the political climate on markets and investment strategies. Key Takeaways [0:18] - Our reactions to Jamie Dimon’s bond market hurricane prediction [04:50] - Forecasts are essentially worthless ...

+ the Housing Market Undergoes a Major Shift

This week, we’re focusing on the impact of Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating. How did the market react? Does it raise real concerns? Does it have real long-term effects? We’ll also delve into the implications of the new tax bill and its potential ramifications on the economy. We wrap with a look at hurricane season and the gripping story of New Orleans’ jail escapees. Key Takeaways [0:19] - Greg sums up an entire week of news in 3 minutes [03:03] - Unpacking the Moody's dow...

The last 40 days have seen the market sharply decline and come roaring back, and now, the market is positive on the year. We’ll look at how pending trade deals and tariff reductions have positively impacted the markets and discuss the strength of the American economy and consumer. We also talk real estate dynamics, interest rate projections, and how our beloved home state is poised for an economic boon. Key Takeaways [0:19] - Harsh decline leads to roaring back [07:57] - The streng...

+ AI Investment, Stagflation, and the Fed's Role in Market Direction

Looking back on a month for the record books

We’re back from Spring Break, and…there’s a lot to catch up on! We dive right into the market volatility driven by tariff-related news and its implications for the economy. We’ll discuss the overwhelming need for certainty, the issues that come with a lack of trade with China, how paring back tariffs would be a business tailwind, and the Fed’s plan to get back to business as usual. We’ll also examine the decoupling of Bitcoin and gold from traditional asset classes and draw parallels to similar,...

There’s only one thing to talk about this week. We discuss the recent volatility surrounding tariffs and the implications for investors. We explore historical trends during periods of uncertainty, the opportunities that arise in fixed income investments, and the potential impact of economic uncertainty on consumer behavior. Weeks like this emphasize the importance of financial planning and present the opportunity to reassess investment strategies. Key Takeaways [0:17] - Recapping the l...

In the aftermath of “Liberation Day”, we discuss the market reactions to the tariffs announced by the Trump administration, the implications for economic growth, and the importance of diversification in investment strategies. They analyze the current state of the markets, the fear index, and the potential effects of interest rate changes. The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to navigate volatility and maintain a disciplined approach to investing. Key Takeaways [0:17] - Post...

Greg and Doug Stokes discuss a first quarter filled with volatility, focusing on the performance of the Magnificent 7 companies and how market corrections are normal and often lead to better valuations. We’ll analyze consumer sentiment and reflect on historical comparisons to previous market corrections. We’ll also discuss why we welcome periodic volatility, allowing investors time to assess their risk and diversification levels. Key Takeaways [0:17] - Wrapping up a choppy Q1 [02:52...

Inflation and Interest Rates, Bond and Global Markets, and the U.S. Housing Market

Market corrections, recession narratives, and government spending

With the news swirling about S&P 500 declines, we dig into why market corrections are a normal part of financial cycles and why diversification is proving effective in the current environment. We’ll also dig into the performance of international markets, interest rate predictions, inflation vs. stagnation arguments, tariffs, jobs, and more. Key Takeaways [00:17] - What’s going on with the market correction and are we concerned? [04:51] - Corrections happen as part of a normal functioni...

Although we’re only 3-4% off market highs, investor sentiment has recently turned quite bearish, especially given a turbulent macro environment. We’ll look back on the first two months of the year, analyzing the fluctuations in the S&P 500, crypto, global tensions, and the reversal of inflation narratives. We’ll also examine why it feels like everything you thought you’d be bullish about under a Trump presidency, you should have been bearish about, and vice versa. Before we head out to more para...

Throw me something, mister! It’s Mardi Gras time in New Orleans, and we’ll talk about what that means for the city’s culture and what a great family-friendly time it is. We then transition to a broader discussion on the surprising resilience of the Chinese economy and why a positive January and February often predict a strong year ahead. The conversation shifts to the cryptocurrency market, particularly meme coins, and the potential risks involved. We also hit on the demographic challenges in Eu...