Episodes

We’re coming off of another good market month. Bitcoin is back. People can’t get enough AI stocks. Vibes are high, and we’ll look into why that’s the case. We’ll then discuss how/why we should hedge that optimism with historical data and end with updates on the electric vehicle and bond markets. Key Takeaways [00:16] - The risk appetite has returned [04:52] - Why are the vibes the way they are right now? [09:09] - Hedging optimism [13:15] - Mania in the EV sector [18:42] - Bon...

NVIDIA is the story of the week. We’ll look at their rising market cap and why price matters more than hype when it comes to new hot sectors like AI. We’ll also discuss practical AI uses, from big banks to our personal relationships. We end with our suggested advice on how to handle thinking about peaks vs. cliffs during market highs. Key Takeaways [00:16] - AI is becoming the new hot topic [03:57] - NVIDIA’s exploding market cap [07:22] - NVIDIA’s dependence on the Magnificent 7 [08:01] - ...

During the Mardi Gras break, we welcome on Seth Johnson, a partner at 338 Ventures. With his wealth of real estate experience and insight, he’ll tell us about the impact of COVID and how it got us to this point. We’ll discuss the challenges that developers and project sponsors are facing, the emergence of a new, alternative lending market, and the banks’ current decision tree. Seth also gives his outlook for multi-family and the real estate market as a whole and what we should be looking forward...

Happy early Mardi Gras from New Orleans! Before we head into a weekend of floats and football, we question why we’re hearing so many economic bears coming out of the woodwork. In that vein, we’ll look at potential bearish indicators like tech bubble rumblings and the country’s unsustainable fiscal path. We’ll then examine tech’s impact on the economy and society as a whole, why this is a recession of the poor, and make the bear case for Nvidia. We finish by giving our expert opinions on the big...

Thanks for joining us each week for 100 episodes of the Lagniappe Podcast. We’ll continue our conversation from last week about small and large caps and what it means to have such a large gap between them. We’ll then look back on a great January and how it falls in line historically, check in on bond market predictions, and track the normalization of the economy after rapid growth and rate hikes. And like every other podcast, we’ll discuss Taylor Swift in the run-up to the Super Bowl. Key Takea...

Coming off the heels of hitting a new high for the S&P 500, we’ll talk about how, why, and what it means that we are in a bull market. We’ll then examine the latest on earnings, inflation, and the effect of a massive cash surplus. With some football talk mixed in, we finish by taking a broader perspective to look back on lessons we learned in a post-COVID cycle. Key Takeaways [00:18] - China stumbles while the US market surges [03:45] - We’re calling it: we’re in a bull market [09:29] - Pric...

2024’s markets have gotten off to a choppy start, but that hasn’t stopped economists from calling this a period of vibespansion. We’ll look into the merits of that notion as well as how fixed debt is working to the advantage of home and small business owners. We’ll also take a look at the economic impact of China invading Taiwan and discuss the red flags of investing in countries with autocratic regimes. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Vibespansion during a choppy start to the 2024 markets [04:25] - ...

Heading into a big NFL weekend, we look at the wins and losses and what we learned from the market in 2023. We also chat about conflicting inflation data leading to renewed calls for recession. We then finish with a blitz of news including Boeing, Bill Gates, and Zuckerberg’s cows. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Why the disciplined investor is paid off in the long run [05:18] - Conflicting inflation/CPI data [09:15] - Renewed recession narratives from prognosticators [13:47] - Boeing insider tradi...

Happy New Year from Stokes Family Office. We kick off the new year by looking at what historically happens after a good market year and pose the question, are we better off simply expecting positive performance? We’ll then dive into incredibly interesting demographic data, look at the correlation of stocks and bonds, and examine the Ozempic effect on the markets. Key Takeaways [01:03] - Historical results after a good year in the markets [03:53] - Betting on humanity and a diversified portfol...

As we head into Christmas, we’ll discuss whether or not we’ve already seen our Santa Claus rally. We’ll then dive into core CPE numbers and take our weekly look at inflation. Finally, we’ll review the biggest narratives of 2023 before looking ahead to what we hope will be a big 2024 as we explain our pragmatic stance on being long-term bullish. Key Takeaways [02:05] - Have we already had our Santa Claus Rally? [06:50] - Checking in on core CPE and inflation [10:01] - Looking ahead to 24 [13...

There’s a narrative brewing that the market has beaten inflation/a recession, but we’ll look into why the game is not over yet. We’ll also examine the coiled spring of small and mid-caps, how this bear market stacks up historically, and the wild ride we’ve been on over the past 6 weeks. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Is the market declaring that the interest rate hiking cycle is over? [04:45] - The inflation/recession game is not over [09:25] - How does this bear market stack up historically [13:3...

Amidst a cloud of public negativity, we’ll combat the perma-bull narratives and go through a list of things you don’t see in a recession. We’ll then discuss why we might need to consider skipping our typical “rules of thumb” during this COVID period. Finally, with the new jobs report in hand, we’ll talk about what happens if the economy doesn’t slow down, what’s on the horizon for multifamily, and why market history shows that patience will be rewarded. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Things you don’t...

We dive straight into the bond market as it comes off its best month in the last 40 years. We’ll then discuss how interest rates are affecting residential & commercial real estate markets differently, what the Fed’s next move can/should be, the life of Charlie Munger, and the crazy spending on Holiday travel and shopping. Key Takeaways [00:13] - Patting ourselves on the back (momentarily) for our bond market takes [03:41] - Differences in the residential & commercial real estate markets [05:...

As we look forward to Thanksgiving, we start by saying what we’re grateful for including being American at this point in time of history. We’ll then juxtapose that with what’s going on in one of our favorite countries, Argentina as well as across Latin America and the world. We take note of the strength of the economy in the everyday things we see, give our weekly Fed/inflation update, and finish with our thoughts on Americans’ confidence in the future. Key Takeaways [01:10] - Election shocker...

After another positive week in the markets, we’ll go through our weekly inflation check-in, re-examining our own opinions over the past year and looking ahead to what the Fed can/will do next. We’ll then take note of the big bank forecasts that are rolling in and how they compare to last year’s and discuss why in times of elevation in volatility, bearish opinions come out of the woodwork. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Checking in on inflation numbers [04:27] - The attractiveness of bonds [08:08] -...

After a volatile, but positive past week, we’ll discuss comments from Jerome Powell and how the Fed continues to drive the markets while earnings continue to grow. We’ll also reexamine fearmongering prognostications and why you should ignore headlines on surging debt. Key Takeaways [00:17] - How the Fed continues to be the market driver [06:15] - Why some of the most interest rate-sensitive sectors have done the best this year [10:05] - Earnings per share for the S&P 500 [13:23] - Prospecti...

Happy All Saints’ Day from the home of the Saints. After recapping Halloween from Uptown New Orleans, we’ll jump into a discussion on the secrecy of some of the largest hedge funds. We’ll then look at the intertwined relationship and valuation of stocks and bonds, the trajectory of the U.S. markets, and our weekly inflation update. Key Takeaways [01:20] - Looking behind the curtain at hedge funds like Bridgewater [07:35] - The relationship and relative valuation of stocks & bonds in today's m...

We start today with the narrative that Google’s earnings are the impetus for the markets selling off. Then with a historical perspective, we’ll share what we’re telling our clients during this choppy, ping pong market. We’ll finish with our thoughts on why we actually haven’t slipped into recession and how the U.S. missed a major refinancing opportunity. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Are Google’s earnings really why the market is down? [04:08] - What we’re telling clients about the stock market [0...

We open with Saints sadness after a night in the Dome. Then on the anniversary of 1987’s Black Monday, we’ll look back at that historic day and how it compares to today’s choppy market. We’ll then take a deep dive into the bond and real estate markets before examining a narrative shift where good news is actually good news again. Key Takeaways [00:17] - The Saints are no longer fun [03:45] - Looking back at the crash of 1987 [07:11] - How today’s choppy market compares to that historic downt...

With the new CPI report in hand, we’ll take a look at inflation and how it continues to affect purchasing power and the markets across the board. We’ll also examine why when you start investing can be as vital as anything else. Then, we’ll finish with our weekly Taylor Swift conversation, rave about our own personal experience with Patrick Mahomes, and marvel at the human achievement of a new marathon record. Key Takeaways [00:16] - Looking at the latest CPI numbers [08:41] - Real estate and ...

We kick off this week looking at the bond yield and the risk/reward that the bond/fixed income market presents. We’ll also look at how interest rates/inflation are affecting housing, stocks, the odds of a recession, and general consumer spending. Key Takeaways [00:16] - Looking at the Bond yield [07:38] - The risk/reward of bonds now and in the future [11:45] - An update on mortgage rates and the housing market [15:50] - How is the stock market reacting? [19:21] - Real estate index fund pe...

We’ll check out a choppy market and how it reacted to last week’s Fed announcement that rates will be higher for longer and another rate hike is on the way. We’ll also look at why we may be entering a time to buy fixed income, how opinion sentiments of inflation have an impact, and give updates on the oil and crypto markets. Key Takeaways [00:18] - Reviewing the last week’s choppy market [04:20] - Bond markets and opportunities to buy fixed income [08:38] - The seasonality of the market [14...

We start this week with our thoughts on the Fed estimating rates will be higher for longer. We’ll then dive into the craziness of the venture capital industry over the last few years and how interest rates are playing a role. We finish with a historical perspective on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and bullish takes on Taylor Swift and our New Orleans Saints. Key Takeaways [00:18] - Checking in with Jerome Powell and the Fed [04:41] - Instacart IPO & the competition within the venture capital in...

Join us as we examine sticky core CPI numbers and how shelter factors in. We’ll also look at why deflation may be our biggest economic risk right now. We’ll finish with tales of a Somali pirate stock exchange and how an idea from the movie Trading Places is playing out in real life. Key Takeaways [00:25] - Housing’s effect on inflation and CPI [04:41] - Disinflationary risks [08:19] - Why the S&P 500 has been stuck in a rut [15:44] - The Somali pirate stock exchange [18:00] - Orange juice ...