Predicting an Unpredictable Market

Bull or bear? Always the question and (almost) always difficult to answer. Especially in 2022. Between the Russia-Ukraine invasion, rising interest rates, and spiked inflation, the markets have been up and down. And it’s incredibly difficult to take a hint from what’s happening when deciding whether to invest or play it safe. 

Given today’s turmoil, it’s important to consider what’s worked in crisis markets of the past and what indicators signal it’s time to “go long” with your investments. CNN, Vanguard, and BlackRock have different ideas on where things are headed, short-term and long-term. But is it always best to trust the investor experts? And if so, which experts should you trust? 

This week, Doug and Greg discuss what rising fear and uncertainty mean for today’s tricky markets, why now is the best time to look overseas for property purchases, how to manage rising inflation, and why the best investors don’t always dish out the best financial advice. 

Key Takeaways

• [00:18] - Why a rise in general fear is a contrarian indicator for today’s financial markets. 
• [09:34] - Why it’s important to remain cautious about rising inflation. 
• [11:48] - How the markets have evolved and what the experts think about prospective returns. 
• [16:54] - Why now is the best time to explore international real estate. 
• [21:30] - Why rising interest rates are a positive thing for investors. 

Quotes

[02:48] - “It’s counterintuitive to buy when there’s fear and panic, but that really is the best time to buy if you look at history.” ~ Greg Stokes

[06:13] - “Generally speaking, being a human being is not something that helps you in terms of emotions from an investment standpoint. Typically, if you look back at history, if the crowd is doing something, either buying or selling at a high clip, it’s usually a contrarian indicator one way or another.” ~ Greg Stokes

[12:39] - “It’s not really a valuation-driven sentiment change in terms of just general markets. I think rising interest rates, rising inflation is really the concern here while a year ago it was more about, can companies really grow into the valuations they’re receiving?” ~ Doug Stokes

Links 

• CNN’s Fear & Greed Index
• When Fear Runs High, Time To Buy? 
• Charlie Bilello 
• Crisis Investing: How To Maximize Returns During Market Panics
• Ken Fisher
• Always Buy High Uncertainty. Certainty In the Stock Market Is Very Expensive.
• Vanguard Market Perspectives: February 2022
• BlackRock Capital Market Assumptions

Connect with our hosts

• Doug Stokes
• Greg Stokes
• Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.