It’s Analyst Forecast Season
This week, we’ll begin our year-in-review as the analyst forecasts for 2025 start rolling in. We’ll balance those predictions by examining the volatility of the S&P 500 and the market’s historical performance. We’ll also continue our cryptocurrency conversation by considering it a speculative asset similar to gold while so much of it has no utility. We end with a historical look at markets in year 1 of presidential terms and how that data, coupled with the earnings variable, may predict a slight pullback.
Key Takeaways
- [00:17] - It’s analysts’ prediction season
- [02:56] - Earnings are the big variable in forecasting
- [10:48] - Treating Bitcoin as a speculative asset similar to gold
- [13:19] - Many new cryptocurrencies are scammy and lack utility
- [19:08] - Why history tells us there could be a pullback in 2025
Links
- Roche: The average gain in an up year for the stock market since 1928 is +21%. The average loss in a down year in that same timeframe was -13%.
- Ro: 22 eye-catching charts as we consider what's next for the stock market
- Factset Earnings Insight
- Hedgeye: Fartcoin's market cap is now greater than 38% of all American publicly-traded companies.
- Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble
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